With the House of Representatives
voting overwhelmingly (212-46) to impeach Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez, attention to shifts to the articles of impeachment and the impending trial of the Ombudsman by the Senate.
For all of the pious and upright words emanating from the Senators, it will still boil down to a game of numbers, and, for all of the evidence that the House legal team will present, it will still boil down to where the Senators' loyalties lie.
Am I being cynical? Maybe, but, after seeing our Senators in action during the impeachment trial of former President and convicted plunderer Joseph Estrada, it was clear then, as it probably will be now, what will be working for most of the Senators will be their personal loyalties. As it is, seven current Senators were judges at Estrada's trial, and their biases were clear for people to see, since the whole impeachment trial was televised.
Two other Senators, Senators Joker Arroyo and Edgardo Angara, were involved, as well, albeit in different roles: Arroyo was part of the House legal team, and Angara was Estrada's Executive Secretary. How they may judge the Ombudsman is still up in the air, although Arroyo has gone on record for criticizing the House panel for what he perceives as "weakness" its case against Gutierrez. At the same time, Senator Arroyo has been seen to be very supportive of former President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who had appointed Gutierrez to begin with.
As for other Senators, they may well bring in their personal biases into the picture. Senator Bongbong Marcos has been very vocal about wanting his father, the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos to be buried at the Libingan ng mga Bayani; so far, the Aquino administration has resisted the call, but it might give in in order to secure the younger Marcos' support.
Ombudsman Gutierrez has been very calm and confident of her chances in the Senate trial, and with good reason: to convict the Ombudsman, two-thirds of the Senate must vote in favor, and, with 23 Senators sitting in trial (assuming Senator Panfilo Lacson comes out of his hiding place in time for it), only eight votes will acquit the Ombudsman. If one looks at the Senate composition, at how many are not particularly fond of President Noynoy Aquino, who has made it his goal to remove the Ombudsman, an acquittal is not far-fetched; in fact, it is highly probable.
Senators Manny Villar and Loren Legarda were bitter opponents of Aquino in last year's presidential elections, and that's sure to be a factor. The two Cayetano siblings, Pia and Allan, are party-mates of Villar and Legarda, and it's likely that they'll toe the party line. Senators Zubiri, Revilla, and Lapid are members of Lakas-Kampi-CMD, Rep. Gloria Arroyo's party, and are likely to vote along party lines, as well. Add Joker Arroyo, and there are eight hypothetical votes against conviction.
Of course, it's possible that our Senators will be impartial and judge the case on the merits of the charges and evidence presented by the House legal team; the trial is likely to begin in May, and a lot of things can happen in a month. However, given what I know of our current Senate, I can't help but feel that the Ombudsman is going to walk free from her impeachment trial.
On Related Matters: As I scan through the various pundits in the newspapers, it's interesting to note how those perceived to be Arroyo supporters, such as
Rigoberto Tiglao in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, and
Alex Magno in the Philippine Star, are very vocal in their condemnation of the House vote, decrying the "railroading" of the vote via the use of the pork barrel. Their noise now is in direct proportion to their silence during the numerous impeachment attempts against former President Arroyo, which, of course, to them, were all either baseless or without merit.
Amando Doronilla cautions those crying for Gutierrez's head to follow the rule of law and due process, else the whole trial becomes a "witch-hunt".
For a quick summary of the charges against Gutierrez, one can check out
this site for a graphic representation.