The Maguindanao Massacre Update: Ampatuan Surrenders

(UPDATE) Andal Ampatuan, Jr., the prime suspect in the Maguindanao massacre has surrendered, and will be brought to Manila for questioning.

While this is a welcome development, we still cannot be relieved about the situation. There are several details which point to a possible whitewash or cover-up.

One such detail is the fact that Presidential Adviser for Mindanao Affairs Jess Dureza met with the Ampatuans before the younger Ampatuan surrendered. One can only guess at what deal was struck, what was discussed at that meeting.

Another detail is the fact that Dureza and Ampatuan hugged each other before Ampatuan was handed over to Justice Secretary Agnes Devanadera, which is a show of support for the younger Ampatuan. Considering the gravity of the offense that faces Ampatuan, Dureza’s gesture is an uncomfortable sight; it may suggest that the younger Ampatuan will get off lightly for allegedly masterminding the massacre of 52 civilians and journalists, an atrocity unparalleled in Philippine electoral history.

Finally, it’s not reassuring to note that the government has been treating the Ampatuans with kid gloves all the way. The police have been hesitant to tag the younger Ampatuan as the prime suspect, even though his presence at the scene was noted by some of the victims before they were brutally murdered. Consider also that the Ampatuans have been silent over the tragedy, not even condemning the barbaric actions of their armed thugs, is tantamount to tacit approval of the tragedy. Should the government even think twice about dealing harshly with their erstwhile allies? Does it even have to be asked?

Even the administration’s anointed candidate, former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro appears to be toeing the administration’s soft manner of dealing with the suspect, defending the slow pace of the authorities. It must be difficult for him at this point; he has to try to win the voting public over, and yet he has this hanging over his head. You can be sure that his opponents will not let the public forget the administration’s actions over this tragedy. Unless there is any substantial progress in the case, Teodoro’s chances of winning are probably nil.

The government cannot afford to be soft in this heinous crime, unless officials want to declare open season on political killings. Otherwise, this tragic incident will just be the portent of things to come in next year’s elections.

Murder Most Foul: The Maguindanao Massacre

It’s ironic that a day after the Philippines made international news with the selection of pushcart educator Efren Penaflorida as CNN’s Hero of the Year, our country made international news the very next day with the news of murder most foul.

Last Monday, around 40 civilians, made up mostly of women and journalists, were massacred in what appears to be a result of clan rivalry. Among the dead are the wife of the possible gubernatorial candidate, vice-mayor Ishmael Mangudadatu of Buluan town, Mangudadatu’s legal counsels, and journalists from various media outfits.

Apparently, based on news reports, the group was on their way to file the vice-mayor’s certificate of candidacy when their convoy of vehicles was stopped by a large group of over 100 armed men. The last message the vice-mayor received from his wife Genalyn was that her group was being held, and that one of the men had slapped her. Her body, along with those of the other members of the group, was found late Monday afternoon in the village of Masalay. Up to yesterday, bodies were still being found in shallow graves; the death toll from the tragedy is now standing at 52.

What makes the massacre more heinous is that some of the bodies were mutilated, and there are reports of the women supposedly being raped before they were killed. It appears that whoever was responsible for this crime wanted to send a clear message to the Mangudadatus: don’t run for election.

Even journalists, who had no part of the clan rivalry, were not spared, as it was clear that one of the objectives was to leave no witnesses.

The main suspects appear to be the Mangudadatu’s rival clan in Mindanao, the Ampatuans, who are close allies of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, having delivered Maguindanao to her in the 2007 senatorial elections. Reports supposedly place Datu Unsay town Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr., son of the Maguindanao governor Andal Sr., and members of the governor’s private army at the scene of the massacre.

As of this writing, the Ampatuans have yet to issue any statement about the incident. I find that curious because, if they were innocent of the crime, I would think that they would immediately deny any involvement in this heinous act. Their silence is very telling, and I would distrust any statement that they would make at this point. Too many fingers are pointed in their direction at any rate to disprove any denial.

Presidential Primer, 2nd Revision

With Senator Loren Legarda accepting the invitation of Senator Manny Villar to be his running mate in next year’s presidential race, the stage is more or less set for the major players, while the minor leaguers are likely scrambling to project themselves as alternate choices, although, given the already crowded field, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to scratch the surface. Given the results of the most recent Pulse Asia survey, there appear to be four or five major players, and a host of minor leaguers. Let’s take a look at each and assess their strengths and weaknesses.

The major players:

Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas

Still the team to beat, as Aquino commands quite a bit of popularity, having garnered 44% of those polled, leaving the others trailing his dust. Roxas, at 37%, also leads the pack of vice-presidentiables by a double-digit margin. As I stated earlier, it’s likely that people are treating this tandem as the possible equivalent of the U.S.’s President Barack Obama, and are hoping that Aquino and Roxas represent true and meaningful change.

However, it should be noted that, once he was elected, Obama has had a number of missteps, and is finding out the hard way that it’s one thing promising change, and it’s a totally different thing, making it happen. So it may be for Aquino and Roxas. But, given the rest of the field, at the very least, these two have little scandal attached to them, although Aquino’s opponents are inflating the Hacienda Luisita issue in order to smear the Senator’s name. Aquino, though, has promised to find a solution to the problem, and, hopefully, he will manage to do this before the elections, so that people will see his capacity to lead.

Manny Villar and Loren Legarda

This tandem was just announced last night, although it had been speculated upon that Legarda, who was abandoned by erstwhile partymate Senator Chiz Escudero, would throw her lot in with Villar. Nonetheless, it’s still a strange pair, considering that Legarda was one of those who assisted in ousting Villar from his position as Senate President, and was critical of Villar, especially over the controversial C-5 double-budget insertion. For her to have a change of heart raises suspicions that quite a bit of money was involved in convincing her to run.

Villar, though, might not be such a bad choice to make, given his credentials, but he has shown himself in the past to be of questionable loyalty, given the fact that he was instrumental in impeaching then President Joseph Estrada, and then, when Villar ran again for Senator, he went to gain Erap’s blessing. In Legarda, then, he has a kindred spirit, as Legarda has flitted from party to party, searching for the one who would aid her quest for power. Should both of them win, expect them to be holding knives behind their backs at all times.

Joseph Estrada and Jejomar Binay

Estrada is looking for redemption in the ballot box, but his current survey standing of 11% doesn’t suggest a happy ending for this film star. Having Binay as his running mate does him no favors, because Binay has his own share of shady dealings. The two of them together merely amplifies the perception that the bad old days before Estrada was ousted are likely to return should these two make it to the top.

Estrada seems to be laboring under the delusion that, if he wins, it means that the people believe that he’s innocent of the crimes for which he was convicted. What do the people actually know of the law? The fact remains that he was convicted for plunder, and that, as a former President, he should be ineligible to run, his so-called legal experts notwithstanding. He’s had his chance, and he blew it big time. It’s time to move on.

Gilbert Teodoro and Edu Manzano

Even though Teodoro still hasn’t gotten anywhere close to a strong showing in the surveys, it cannot be denied that, once the campaign begins, as the administration candidate, he will have the full power and coffers of the administration party behind him, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Still, if he cannot increase his survey results as the campaign unwinds, it’ll be very difficult for him to explain an upset win.

I’m not sure if Teodoro had a hand in choosing Manzano as his running mate, but, given the more experienced possibilities in Lakas-NUCD-KAMPI, it’s still an odd choice. While Manzano has served as Makati vice-mayor, and as head of the Optical Media Board, he hasn’t been in the political arena long enough for him to make the jump to the second highest position in the land. The fact that the heavier hitters in the party weren’t interested in being the vice-presidential candidate may suggest that they’re aware of the difficult road ahead of them should they accept the candidacy.

Teodoro himself will be laboring under the burden of having to answer for all of the administration’s sins. Given the sheer number of the scandals that have characterized this administration, Teodoro is going to be doing quite a bit of explaining.

Chiz Escudero (?)

It’s not yet certain if Escudero will risk his political capital, and perhaps, his career, by running for president next year. For one thing, he doesn’t have a political party to support him, after leaving the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Unfortunately, this move didn’t pay big dividends for him; no big names cropped up to announce their support for him save for the leftists, who haven’t really committed to him.

Still, in the recent Pulse Asia survey, he managed a respectable 13%, enough for third place, so it’s possible that he will still find some way to make his campaign run. Given the current field, though, it’s probably better for Escudero to bide his time, and prepare for a run in 2016. By then, if he plays his cards right, he will be in good position to claim the top spot then. But not right now.

So far, those appear to be the major players. In my next post, I’ll take a look at the minor players, and see whether there’s a possibility for them to win. More likely, however, the minor players are better off sliding down to a lower position, because, given the current field, should they push through with their bids, they’re likely to be disappointed.

Manny Wins!

The hits just keep on coming from the reigning pound for pound king.

Manny Pacquiao displayed an awesome combination of speed and power, and stopped reigning WBO welterweight champion Miguel Cotto via TKO in the final round. With the victory, Pacquiao captures his record seventh belt in seven different weight categories.

While Cotto came out swinging in the first round, Pacquiao gained the upper hand by knocking Cotto down twice, first in the third round, then in the fourth. By the ninth round, it was clear that Cotto was simply avoiding getting knocked out, as he continuously backpedaled and jabbed to keep Pacquiao away from him.

In the twelfth round, Pacquiao managed to catch Cotto in a flurry of punches that referee Kenny Bayless finally stopped the match, giving Pacquiao the victory.

What I liked about Cotto was that he was a real stand up guy. After losing to Pacquiao, he went over to Manny's corner and congratulated him for his victory. That's class.

It was a much needed victory to lift up the spirits of a country that has had its share of natural disasters this year. After the twin horrors of typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, both of which devastated the island of Luzon, causing millions of pesos of damage, and driving many out of their homes, Filipinos could once more rejoice that their idol once more has put the Philippines squarely on the world stage. No less than US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton predicted that Pacquiao would prevail over the heavier Cotto.

As to what’s next for the new WBO welterweight champ, it is likely that talks are ongoing to set up what could be his biggest match of all, against the undefeated Floyd Mayweather, Jr. With the win over Cotto, Pacquiao should be able to dictate the terms of the fight, although it’s likely that the split of the purse will be a stumbling block, given the size of Mayweather’s ego.

For now, though, the important thing is that Pacquiao has proved that he is a true boxing legend, and, as Filipinos, we should rejoice at that.

To Run Or Not To Run: The Curious Case of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

One of the questions hovering in the realm of Philippine politics is whether President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will run in next year’s elections.

The issue is being floated around by lawmakers loyal to her, notably Quezon Rep. Danilo Suarez, who was also responsible for footing the bill of one of the President’s extravagant dinners abroad. So far, he has expressed the idea that the President could either run for Congress, representing her home province Pampanga, or for Vice-President. Today, Suarez asserted that the President, given her supposed experience, would make an excellent Speaker of the House.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the President will soon issue an order for Suarez to shut up, as his sycophancy isn’t doing his patron any favors. Based on the surveys, the President is widely unpopular, and one of the reasons for this is the perception that she has been looking for ways and means in order to stay in power. By putting the spotlight on the issue, Suarez is reminding people why Arroyo shouldn’t be allowed to stay beyond her current term.

Still, some of his assertions have some merit behind them, particularly the notion that the President might run for Congress. The media has been keeping a running total of how many times the President has visited Pampanga this year, giving credence to the possibility of the President’s running there.

As for the Vice-Presidency, I’m not sure how much of an asset she will be to any presidential aspirant, although, if she did decide to throw her hat into the race, she would most likely be paired off with the administration candidate-to-be, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro. Such a pair would only highlight Teodoro’s attachment to the President, and would only be a lodestone on his back; all his opponents would have to do is to focus attention on the many scandals of the Arroyo administration. Furthermore, it will strongly suggest that Teodoro is merely the puppet of the President, who will most likely act as an eye over his shoulder, thus emasculating the would-be President.

Another issue that the President will have to hurdle is, if she should run, whether she should step down from her position. If she runs concurrently with her position as President, she will never shake off the belief that she will use her position to win. While it appears clear that there is no legal barrier to this, it is still a grossly unfair advantage, and she will never live that issue down should she win.

From another point, it’s possible that all this speculation is merely a smokescreen in order to hide yet another administration scheme. What that could be escapes me at the moment.

It should be noted that, aside from the occasional pronouncements from Suarez and other loyal lawmakers, there has been little reaction from the opposition regarding Arroyo’s post-Presidential plans. It’s likely that people are taking a wait-and-see attitude to this, which is only right. The President hasn’t categorically stated that she plans to run next year, so, at this point, the whole thing is a non-issue, and will remain so until she actually files her certificate of candidacy. When that happens, we can be sure that the fireworks will go off then.

Political Scramble

With November upon us and roughly two weeks before the start of filing of certificates of candidacy, the lines among the potential candidates are slowly but surely being drawn, becoming more and more apparent as the starting date looms before us. And this is not only true for the national level, but also for the local level.

In Quezon City, for example, it’s very clear that the mayoralty will be contested, so far, by current Vice-Mayor Herbert “Bistek” Bautista, 3^rd district councilor Ariel Inton, and 2^nd district representative Annie Susano. However, until yesterday, I was unaware that former mayor Ismael Mathay appears set to throw his hat into the ring. On the way home, I noticed that signs had cropped up along the road, with Mathay’s mug basically exhorting people to register as voters before the deadline, but, I can’t recall seeing the posters before the October 31 deadline. Under Mathay’s name was the word, “mayor”, but it’s been almost a decade since Mathay’s last term, so my guess is that he’s either releasing trial balloons to see if he’s still remembered by the voting public, or he is set to announce his own bid for the mayor’s post. Since, for me, anyway, he’s more remembered as a corrupt official way back in the Marcos era, I can’t see how he can win this time around.

It’s a pity that the current mayor Sonny Belmonte is at the end of the three-term limit, because his stewardship of the city has been more or less positive; he would be one official whom I wouldn’t mind getting another term. The limits stand, though, and it’s time for someone else to take over. From what I can see, Bautista is the anointed heir, as Belmonte’s daughter Joy is being groomed to be Bistek’s running mate. Since I don’t know Inton all that well, and I despise Susano and Mathay for a number of reasons, I’ll probably be casting my vote for Bautista, who has kept a fairly low but clean image in his nine or so years as vice-mayor.

On the national level, it seems that the race for the presidency is down to four, as a number of columnists have pointed out: Senators Manny Villar and Noynoy Aquino, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, former President Joseph Estrada, and, if he makes up his mind in time, Senator Chiz Escudero. While there are others who have voiced their desire to run (Bayani Fernando, Jamby Madrigal, Hermogenes Ebdane, Nicolas Perlas, JC de los Reyes, Richard Gordon, and Bro. Eddie Villanueva, to name a few), their low survey ratings and lack of exposure have probably relegated them to the background for this coming election.

Of the major players, only Aquino and Estrada have running mates (Senator Mar Roxas and Makati Mayor Jojo Binay, respectively), although Villar apparently is negotiating with Senator Loren Legarda, who has announced her intent to vie for the second highest post, but was apparently abandoned by her supposed running mate Escudero. Teodoro originally had Local Government Secretary Ronnie Puno, who has since dropped out of the race, so it’s not clear who will be paired with Teodoro at the moment.

The situation, though, is still very fluid, with alliances shifting with each passing day, as politicians scramble to choose which side they will support, in hopes of being rewarded for their loyalty. Until the actual filing day arrives, expect the pace of negotiation to continue building up.

Taking Stock

Looking at my archive stats, I can see that my posting has really slowed down during the past two months. There are two major reasons for this.

The first is the fact that, since I’m working, the past two months have been really hectic. Whether it be checking papers, or preparing lessons, it’s been a bit of a whirl, and I’ve been trying to keep everything fairly balanced.

The other is that, after the ravages of typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, it hasn’t been in my heart to be writing mostly negative reactions to what’s been happening since then. After seeing the damage that the typhoons have wrought on our country, it’s clear that it’s not enough to simply snipe away at our leaders; we also have to pitch in, and do our part. There are enough naysayers in our newspapers and media anyway; I don’t need to add to the ranting. And, admittedly, I've been doing some of that in the past.

Now, what I want to do is to try to look at our national situation from a more objective view, without being necessarily biased against one stand or the other. At the same time, I’d also like to try writing about a wide range of topics, to better expand my mind, and my style. Will that mean I’ll be more regular from here onwards? Well, that’s not really under my control; we’ll just have to see.